Risk Communication

The Mental Models Approach

The mental models approach assumes that for most risks, people already hold at least some relevant knowledge and beliefs that are assembled into a mental model. These psychological representations of the world are used to simulate possible behaviors, outcomes, and ultimately draw conclusions about how one should respond to risk. Among nonexpert or lay audiences, gaps in knowledge and misunderstandings are likely to exist. For instance, some people might not know that children should not be exposed to lead or may mistakenly believe that mammograms prevent (versus detect) breast cancer.

The purpose of the mental models approach is to identify those gaps and close them with targeted information. The first step for researchers is to [Page 1515]construct a single comprehensive model representing expert knowledge of the risk (e.g., sources of exposure to the hazard, possible effects, activities to lower one’s risk) called the influence diagram. This is achieved by conducting literature reviews, semistructured interviews, and quantitative surveys of experts, such as doctors or scientists, who possess specialized knowledge of the risk.

Next, researchers map a single lay mental model by interviewing and surveying members of the target audience. To discover incorrect beliefs and avoid biasing responses, the researcher begins with open-ended interviewing and then moves to more directive, confirmatory questionnaires. Finally, a close-ended survey is distributed to a larger, more representative sample of the intended audience. Once the two models are mapped, the researcher compares how complete, accurate, and specific lay understandings of the hazard are compared to the expert influence diagram. Risk messages can then be developed to address specific gaps, inaccuracies, and details about the threat to improve audience comprehension and response. In the final stage of development, these messages undergo expert review and audience testing to ensure accuracy and clarity before dissemination.

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