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Inferential Statistics

The term inferential statistics refers to applying statistical analysis with observed data for the purpose of making inferences to that which cannot be observed. Although a descriptive statistic is an index that is calculated on a set of data to represent some property of that data, an inferential statistic is calculated from the data as a means of inferring more general properties that go beyond observable data. A common way to conceptualize inferential statistics is to consider that researchers are interested in understanding some property, such as center or variability, of data for a population (e.g., all fourth graders in the United States), yet there are constraints (e.g., access and cost) that keep them from collecting all of the data. Consequently, researchers would obtain data for a subset of the population, called the sample, and then use these data to make inferences to the larger population. The validity of such inferences depends on various factors such as how the sample data are obtained and whether the sample is representative of the population. In practice, it is often not possible to obtain data that strictly meet the requirements for valid inference, yet inferences can be useful approximations of properties of unobservable data. This entry describes methods for calculating inferential statistics, types of inferential statistics, types of inference, and philosophies of probability.

Inferential Methods

Technically, inferential statistics refer to numerical indices used for inference, yet the term often is used to apply to a collection of methods for calculating inferential statistics. These methods include t procedures, analysis of variance, chi-square procedures, the Wilcoxon method, the Kruskal–Wallis method, and many others. A particular method is appropriate for specific configurations of the study, such as the number of explanatory and response variables, and whether the data for each variable are obtained at a categorical or quantitative level of measurement. The method leads to the calculation of statistics that can be used for inference, which is why both the methods and the statistics themselves often fall under the general heading of inferential statistics.

Types of Inferential Statistics

An inferential method applied to a set of data will result in an index that is an inferential statistic. For example, applying analysis of variance techniques to a set of data will result in an F statistic. Although this is an important inferential statistic, it is an intermediate step in the inferential process. In order to make inferences, the researcher must compare this observed statistic to the larger collection of all possible values that could have been obtained for the statistic. If researchers hypothesize characteristics of a population or multiple populations in a study (e.g., it might be hypothesized that the characteristics of multiple populations are all equal), they can calculate not only the possible values of an inferential statistic but also how likely it is to obtain a value of the inferential statistic that is within some specified range. For example, researchers might calculate that there is only a 5% chance that they will observe an F statistic that is greater than 4.0. This ability to make such calculations allows them to calculate inferential statistics that are linked to probability statements.

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