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Inferential statistics allow researchers to make generalizations about how well results from samples match those for populations. Because samples are parts of populations, samples do not include all of the population information. Thus, no inference can be perfect because samples cannot represent completely their parent populations.

Imagine that a population is defined as all students enrolled in U.S. schools. Suppose researchers want to study how well students in that population enjoy school. A survey is developed, and researchers prepare to collect response data. Researchers estimate the target population consists of 3 million students. Because the population encompasses the entire United States, the team of researchers must include all geographic areas from Maine to Hawaii. However, actually collecting data for all U.S. students is too massive, so a sample is selected. Ideally, this sample would be randomly selected, which means that all U.S. students have the same chance of being selected. This makes the sample representative of the population. Essentially, this means that although the sample may represent only a small percentage of the students who comprise the complete population, that sample is assumed to reflect the characteristics of all U.S. students, including those not selected.

Parameters, Statistics, and Probability

A key component of inferential statistics is the degree to which error in estimating population values from sample values can be minimized. Probability theory, a branch of mathematics, plays a central role in inferential statistics. Probability theory serves as the backdrop for two important inferential statistics procedures. One is estimation, and the other is hypothesis testing. Estimation focuses on the degree to which sample values indicate true population values. For populations, computed values such as means, standard deviations, and variances are called parameters. For samples, those values are called statistics. Therefore, questions of estimation address the degree that statistics are equivalent to parameters.

Hypothesis testing pertains to investigators' attempts to answer specific research questions based on theoretical premises. For instance, when researchers want to determine the relationship between two variables—“Is there a relationship between Scholastic Aptitude Test scores and college grade point average?” or “Do males and females differ in their reading ability?”—hypothesis testing converts the research questions into predictive statements so that they can be subjected to empirical testing. Before we describe procedural steps used in hypothesis testing, let's take a very brief look at the history of probability theory in inferential statistics.

Probability Theory and Inferential Statistics

In his classic text titled Probability, Statistics, and Truth, Richard von Mises places the onset of probability theory in statistics in the early 1900s. Although properties of distributions, such as those of the normal curve, had been deduced mathematically by the early 1800s, there was limited research on the degree to which the normal curve reflected phenomena observed in the real world. In the early 20th century, the use of probability and the normal curve became important in fields such as agriculture, genetics, and medicine. At this time, R.A. Fisher, a British statistician, introduced the term likelihood. This term essentially means probability. Sample data could yield likelihoods of responses that are then compared to what is expected for the population based on properties of mathematical distributions such as the normal curve.

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