Delphi Technique

Neil J.Salkind

doi:10.4135/9781412952644

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Delphi Technique

Edited by:
Neil J. Salkind
In:Encyclopedia of Measurement and Statistics
Chapter DOI:https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412952644.n128
Subject:Anthropology, Business and Management, Criminology and Criminal Justice, Communication and Media Studies, Counseling and Psychotherapy, Economics, Education, Geography, Health, History, Marketing, Nursing, Political Science and International Relations, Psychology, Social Policy and Public Policy, Social Work, Sociology, Science, Technology, Computer Science, Engineering, Mathematics, Medicine

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The Delphi technique is a means of collecting data from a diverse group of people for the purpose of reaching a consensus. This entry presents the basic process of the Delphi technique as well as some variations on the process that can be used to meet specific needs. Although the Delphi technique allows for refinement of original ideas and therefore promotes high-quality decisions, it can be time consuming and subject to bias. Examples of how the process can be used in research are provided. From this entry, readers can determine if the Delphi technique is appropriate for their particular situations.

According to S. J. Adams, the Delphi technique provides a representation of varied backgrounds, and it prevents individuals with strong personalities from dominating a group. The purpose is to obtain information from participants to help in the areas of problem solving, planning, and decision making. The Delphi technique is a way to reach a consensus among a group of experts.

The RAND Corporation developed the technique during the 1950s as an approach to forecasting the likelihood and the potential impact of Russian bombing attacks on the United States. The approach was named for the Oracle of Delphi of Greek mythology. It was soon adopted by technological forecasting experts and eventually found its way into other types of research.

Theoretical Basis for the Delphi Technique

Consensus Theory

According to a variety of researchers, the objective of users of the Delphi technique is to achieve consensus. Some proponents of consensus theory believe that building consensus offers opportunity for communal renewal and for achieving group commitment to common goals.

Anonymity

Some researchers and theorists believe that anonymity is helpful for generating quality ideas. Others expect that using the Delphi process discourages individual dominance and simultaneously encourages each person to share his or her ideas without fear of intimidation.

Divergent Thought

Some researchers observe that divergent thinking occurs when individuals or groups are introduced to minority opinions. Anonymity and exposure to a variety of viewpoints contributes to improved creativity and decision making.

Purpose and Uses in Research

Researchers have used the Delphi technique for gathering broad-based opinions from experts, refining their views, and reaching consensus on predictions and plans for dealing with complex issues. The data generated have been used in forecasting, public budgeting, and goal setting. Decision makers in such diverse disciplines as education, safety management, family therapy research, environmental studies, government, medicine, and community health have relied on Delphi for all or portions of their research data.