Delphi Technique

The Delphi technique is a group method used in evaluation to reach consensus for future action. It is a [Page 109]predictive technique (hence the name, which is derived from the ancient Oracle at Delphi) and ascertains the views of a number of experts on a question or questions over several rounds. Answers to the first round are analyzed and categorized, and then a second round of questioning takes place. For example, in an evaluation of training needs, 230 emergency managers around Australia were e-mailed and asked the question, “What training is needed for Emergency Managers like yourselves in the next five years?” Hundreds of varied answers were returned and analyzed so that a list of the top 20 items could be produced. In the second round, the 20 items were listed randomly, and the managers were asked to pick 10 and rank these in order of importance. In this way, consensus was reached about training priorities in the near future.

To undertake the technique it is necessary to follow these steps:

1.
Develop a specific question or questions likely to produce a great variety of responses (it is important to note here that participants must be genuinely interested in the questions posed or the approach will not work)
2.
Select a sample of potential respondents consisting of any type of stakeholder who has the necessary knowledge to answer the questions (the number of participants in the exercise may be a few or more than 100)
3.
Send questions by e-mail or ordinary mail
4.
Receive replies
5.
Carry out a first round of analysis to draw out categories
6.
Send out a second time so participants can see new categories and rank or review them
7.
Repeat as necessary until the necessary level of consensus is approached or achieved

Theoretically, there can be any number of rounds, but two or three are usually enough.

Some advantages to this approach include the following:

• The task is focused.
• When e-mail is used, there is usually a very quick turnaround time.
• Participants do not have to come together or be known to one another.
• It can link people who are apart or who are very busy.
• Geographical barriers can be overcome.
• It enables large groups of people to be contacted cheaply.
• Participants remain anonymous to one another.
• All participants have equal status and have a chance to contribute.
• It avoids group pressure.
• There is some time for reflection.
• It generally requires less time than other group techniques.

Disadvantages are that if ordinary mail is used, considerable time is required for surveys to go back and forth between the evaluator and the participants. In addition, participants are not able to discuss issues, so the technique will not produce the depth and rich quotes that, for example, focus groups are able to produce. There is also some debate among evaluators concerning the validity of the method: Some argue that it fails to meet the standards set for other forms of data collection.

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