Outcome-Driven Research

Conceptual Overview and Discussion

Outcome-driven research is a retrospective accounting of the plausible reasons for a known outcome. This type of case study research is typically cross-sectional in design, selecting one point in time and attempting to identify and reconstruct what led to a particular outcome (see Figure 1). This is a non-evolutionary approach to case study research; most research endeavors take this approach and are primarily concerned with events that have occurred in the past, examining historical artifacts to develop possible explanations.

One of the limitations of theorizing by looking to the past is that elements of the topic of interest may not still exist at the time of the examination, thus limiting the variety, diversity, and heterogeneity of what is being studied. In the case of organizations, for example, only the ones that survive to produce the outcome of interest will be examined, and the ones that did not survive, or were transformed into something else, are not considered, although there is potentially much to be learned from their contribution and historical significance. Left truncation, a form of sample selection bias, may occur if important elements of a population are not included for study because they are not [Page 640]evident at the time of the outcome, potentially resulting in skewed conclusions.

Another limitation of outcome-driven research is that retrospective reconstruction results in an accounting of the events that may be modified or reconstructed on the basis of subsequent events. Once an outcome is known, there is a risk of constructing an explanation or story to fit the outcome. Knowledge or events may well be forgotten over the course of time if there is no documentation or if an event has not been sufficiently reinforced in the memory of individuals or organizations who experienced it. A further limitation of outcome-driven research is that events may be collapsed in terms of the passage of time, resulting in an inaccurate representation of how and when events influenced or affected the outcome. The goal of outcome-driven research is to provide an explanation of how the event (or events) influenced or caused the outcome being studied. The order in which events occur in outcome-driven research is generally not significant; of more importance is the identification of all the events that contribute toward the outcome being researched and how they affected the eventual outcome.

Outcome-driven research relies on a variety of data sources, including interviews, archival data, survey data, ethnographies, and observations, which can be used individually or in combination to create a plausible explanation for why an outcome occurred. Bias may be reduced by using several information sources to mitigate the effect of retrospective sensemaking.

Application

Outcome-driven research comprises much of case study research. Karl Weick wrote an outcome-driven case study using as archival data a written account of a firefighting disaster wherein 13 smokejumpers (firefighters) perished in Mann Gulch, Montana, in 1949 when a forest fire overwhelmed the efforts of the jumper crew. The case study was undertaken to illustrate the breakdown of role structure and sensemaking in an organizational group and to contribute to the body of knowledge regarding temporary organizational systems, structuration, nondisclosive intimacy, intergroup dynamics, and team building. The book on which the case study is based, Young Men and Fire by Norman MacLean, is itself an outcome-driven case study that used data from interviews, trace records, archival records, direct observation, personal experience, and mathematical modeling to retrospectively reconstruct the story of the fire-fighting disaster and attempt to explain what went wrong at Mann Gulch, the known event that triggered the study. More than 40 years passed from the time of the occurrence to when the book was published, so multiple data sources help mitigate any of the potential biases that may have occurred with the passage of time. The case study is rich with descriptive and elegant prose to create a narrative account of the events leading up to and surrounding the disastrous outcome at Mann Gulch.

...