Shaping the Future: A Study Using Scenario Analysis

Abstract

Scenario analysis requires the integration of a diversity of concepts, views, data, and practices for organizations. It is an analysis that draws upon current understanding of organizational and environmental contexts but also one that reflects creativity in the construction of future scenarios within which organizations could compete. This case study explores the application of scenario analysis using the “Field Anomaly Relaxation” technique by a group of regional stakeholders to understand and prioritize emergent futures in a U.K. seaside town. The discussion is focused on two phases of that research project: the series of stakeholder meetings to prioritize emergent futures and the factors shaping them, and final analytical and interpretive phase that generated four distinctive scenarios which were used to frame ongoing strategic planning by local and regional organizations.

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